Advanced Research Workshop (ARW)
"CLIMATE CHANGE AND COASTLINE MIGRATION"

Location: Bucharest, Romania

Date: October 1-5, 2003

Program - Organisation Committee - List of Participants

Additional information about the Nato Science Program.

Objective:

The main objectives of the NATO ARW are:

1. to discuss the actual status of our knowledge about the influence of the climate change and tectonics on the migration of the coastline as factors for human development in the Circumpontic Region,
2. to identify the main achievements to date, as well as the gaps in knowledge,
3. to discuss a scientific approach for integrating geological, prehistoric, historic and instrumental data (for the past century) to predict future geoecological situation in the region for risk assessment in coastal zones under various sea-level scenarios,
4. to reach a consensus on the issues and develop a joint research strategy for future collaboration, and
5. to prepare a proposal "Climate change and migration of the coastline as factors for human development in the Circumpontic Region: from past to forecast" for the NATO Science for Peace Sub-Programme.

The Circumpontic Region is defined here in a larger sense as simply geographical one. It covers a large area from the ancient Manych Strait that lies to the north-east of the Black Sea, the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, the Bosporus Strait, the Sea of Marmara, the Dardanells, the Aegean Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean (Turkey, Israel, Cyprus) and their coasts. This region is of strategic importance not only for eight coastal countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Greece and Israel) but also for at least 17 other countries, which share the drainage basin of the Circumpontic Region, that is more than one-third the size of the European continent. This region, especially the Black Sea, is where migration of the coastline is especially pronounced due to its semi-isolation and restricted connection with the open ocean, and has lately spurred a tremendous international interest as a possible place where the biblical story of the Great Flood originated. This has encouraged a new round of research on sea level changes and migration of the coastline in the region. Geological evidence of the coastline migration integrated with archaeological records provides insight on development of human cultures and civilisations in the Circumpontic Region, which is often viewed as the Cradle of Civilisation. Integrated geological, prehistoric, historic and instrumental (for the past century) data has already been successfully applied to predict future geoecological situation in a small part of the region, the Sea of Azov. Therefore, we have reason to assume that they can also be applied on a larger scale to predict the future of the Circumpontic Region under global climate change scenarios. At present, geologic and archaeological history of the Circumpontic Region is fragmental and controversial. A multidisciplinary international approach is needed, which would combine the existing pieces of the puzzle, and identify those that wait to be found.

This NATO ARW will promote the integration of the countries' researchers in Earth, Behaviour and Atmospheric Sciences into the international R&D community. The workshop will help clarifying the approach to solving the problems outlined above. Printed proceedings with all oral keynote presentations are intended to be published in the NATO Science Series.

Type of Workshop

Key Speakers

Project justification

1. Many projects on the Late Pleistocene-Holocene palaeoclimatology, palaeoceanography, sedimentology, palaeontology, tectonics, and archaeology of the Circumpontic Region are being carried out or are in progress by a number of institutions worldwide. Within the European Union and Eastern Europe, this has resulted in many unassembled pieces of a puzzle, very few attempts being made to synthesise data and interpretations from this large region. In addition, most of the scientific records obtained by the ex-USSR and former Eastern Block countries are still largely unknown to the NATO counterparts as they were published in national languages and have not yet been internationally discussed owing to the slow pace of east-west scientific dialogue.
2. To date, there has been no effort to try and synthesise the geological and archaeological evidence of the influence of coastline migration on human development in the Circumpontic Region as a whole area for last 20,000 yrs. The current GE-GLOSS (Global Sea Level Observing System Sea Level Data Archaeology Project), which is a part of the Global Oceanographic Data Archaeology and Rescue (GODAR) Project, is not an exception. The GE-GLOSS aims to establish high quality global and regional sea level networks for application to climate, oceanographic and coastal sea level research based only on the archaeology of the most recent historic (last two-three centuries) but not prehistoric and early historic sea level records.
3. The ARW is needed to discuss:
   • The influence of past coastline migration on human history in the region. The Circumpontic Region has been a repository of records on human history al least since Early Palaeolithic time (Ronen, 1991). Numerous findings of submerged human settlements (Draganov, 1999) and shipwrecks (Raban et al., 1985) indicate just how important coastline migration has been on human development (Kaplin et al., 1993). There is an evidence of a very thin occupation of the terrain throughout Anatolia, Turkey, of Upper Palaeolithic sites although earlier and later periods are much better represented (Ozdogan, 1998). The Upper Palaeolithic sites and coastline were "swallowed" and are submerged at present. The Holocene sea level changes (Pirazzoli, 1991), which had gradual but fluctuating character in the Circumpontic Region (Yanko, 1990; Tchepalyga, 2001), should affect migration of ancient people far beyond the immediate coastline, in the hinterland. According to the hypothesis of W. Ryan and W. Pitman (1997; 1999), a catastrophic postglacial (8.35 ka BP; Ryan et al., 2003) migration of the coastline due to a rapid sea level rise in the Black Sea basin dispersed early Neolithic foragers and farmers into the interior of Europe and thus provided the historical basis for the biblical story of Noah's Flood. This hypothesis has spurred a tremendous interest by the public, the scientific community, and the media (e.g., Earth, August, 1998; New Scientist, February 1999; Scientific American, February 1999; Der Spiegel, December 2000; National Geographic, May 2001; GSA Today, 2002) and encouraged a new round of research (e.g., Ballard, 2000; Görür et al., 2001; Aksu et al., 2002). There is new evidence of a much earlier (14.0-11.0 ka BP) flood in the basin due to the massive freshwater overflow from the Caspian Sea through the ancient Manych Strait, reducing available space and food resources for Palaeolithic people and likely causing inland migration and the transition from hunting and gathering to farming and cattle breeding in the region (Tchepalyga, in press; Yanko and Tchepalyga, submitted).
   • The influence of present and future coastline migration in geoecological situation of the region under global climate change scenarios. The Circumpontic Region is home to a large percentage of the European citizens, a major source of food and raw materials, a vital link for transport and trade, the location of some of the most valuable habitats, and the favoured destination for leisure. Modern humans with their advanced infrastructure are more affected by the migration of coastlines and by climatic changes, than their prehistoric ancestry. So far, there is no regional study to use a combination of prehistoric, historic and instrumental (last century) data to predict anticipated sea-level changes and geoecological situation in the Circumpontic Region despite the necessity to cope with the consequences of global warming. Such prediction would provide a basis for decision-makers to perform necessary risk arrangement (e.g., Ragozin, 1995; Ragozin, ed., 1997) and will be very important for the coastal planning and ICZM (Integrated Coastal Zone Management) in the Circumpontic Region. This will be useful to future perspective of human civilisation under environmental crisis and global climate change in the coastal zones (Climate Change, 2001), particularly in the Circumpontic Region. At present, the Circumpontic Region is facing serious problems of coastal erosion, habitat destruction, water contamination and resource depletion due to the global climate change. There is clear evidence that anticipated environmental alterations will strongly affect coastal zones of the region already in this century (e.g., Svitoch, 1997). A rather fast sea-level rise (0.1-0.5 cm/y) of the Black Sea must be anticipated (IOC/GLOSS Training…, 1997). The coastline migration dramatically affects coastal geoecology especially in deltaic areas (Panin, 1999, 2001), the shore-facing quarters of cities and towns, low-lying agricultural areas, and coastal petroleum and gas production areas. For example, an increase of the Caspian Sea level by 2.5 m between 1978 and 1995 caused the shoreline to transgress by several dozens kilometres in some many areas and inundated coastal areas, causing a rise of the groundwater table and a change in groundwater composition, it sped coastal erosion, and degraded soils and vegetation. In the contrary, a drastic sea-level fall during 1930-1977 exposed large areas of the Caspian Sea coastal zone, induced a drop of the groundwater table and a drying of ecosystems and salinisation of coastal aquifers (Kaplin, 1997; Selivanov, in press). Therefore, a forecast of the coastline migration in the future is a vital necessity for assessment of possible losses in terms of changes in stability and vulnerability of the coastal systems of the Circumpontic Region.

Because of its relevance to (1), (2) and (3) the ARW is necessary and timely.

It is the hope of the scientific core of the NATO ARW that a joint international project "Climate change and migration of the coastline as factors for human development in the Circumpontic Region: from past to forecast" will be launched by the scientists attending the workshop. This international project will include four NATO countries (Canada, France, Greece, Turkey), one Mediterranean Dialogue (Israel), five partner (Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine) countries and Switzerland. The international teams (the "scientific core") are already established in these countries as a result of personal meetings, emailing, and telephoning with the scientific core members by the project co-ordinator, Prof. V. Yanko-Hombach. In preparation of the future international project outlined above, she presented the main ideas of the international collaboration on the proposed subject on seminars in Bulgaria, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and USA in 2003. The proposed NATO ARW will allow face-to-face discussions and interactions between all members of the scientific core. It is expected to lead to an outline of the new interdisciplinary research strategy on a national and multinational level and its formulation.

The NATO ARW will be carried out on five days (Wednesday to Sunday), with Wednesday and Sunday being the arrival and departure days, respectively. The workshop will be divided into 3 sessions, or 1 session per day (see Programme). Each session will begin with 45-minute presentations by keynote speakers and will be followed by 30-minutes presentation and discussions, and how it will be incorporated into the research plan. On the last day of the workshop, a roundtable meeting will summarise the sessions and splinter groups, and will identify the future strategy. A short field trip to the deltaic areas around Bucharest will be undertaken afterwards.

The Co-Directors of the workshop have substantial experience in conference organisation and scientific collaboration and have known each other for many years. Prof. V. Yanko-Hombach is fluent in English, Russian, Ukrainian and Hebrew. Her main scientific field is Quaternary sea level change, stratigraphy and micropalaeontology of the Ponto-Caspian region. She is the president of an international scientific society, and was the president of two international conferences, in Israel (1997) and in Canada (2000). She was the Executive Director of a recent international conference in Austria (2002) and will have the same responsibility at an upcoming international conference in Isparta, Turkey, in 2004. She was scientific manager of the EU International Project (Avicenne…, 1995, 1996) and has intensive land and marine field experience in the Circumpontic Region as well as significant experience in working in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Turkey and Israel.

Prof. N. Panin is fluent in English, French, Russian, and Romanian. His fields of work are marine and delta sedimentology and geology, coastal zone assessment, protection and management, palaeo- and present-day environmental geology. He is member of the Directory Board of the Romanian Society of Geology, president and national correspondent of the Romanian IAPSO Committee (IUGG), focal point for LOICZ (IGBP). He participated and co-ordinated the Romanian team within a number of European projects in the 4-th and 5-th FrameWork Programme of the European Commission. He organized numerous international and national meetings and workshops.

The two co-directors of the conference cover almost all languages to be presented at the workshop (the Georgian scientists are fluent in Russian; ARW is well equipped; the host country is moderately inexpensive, and located in the heart of Europe where it can be reached by bus, train and aircraft easily.

Publication

A tentative title of the NATO ARW proceedings to be published in the NATO Science Series as an output of the meeting:

"CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION OF THE COASTLINE AS FACTORS FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN THE CIRCUMPONTIC REGION" (V. Yanko-Hombach, N. Panin, and W. Ryan, Eds.).

REFERENCE

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